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Selected Publication:

Publication type: Doctoral Thesis

Year: 2005

Author(s): Strele, C

Title: Besprechung der Phocine Distemper Virus Epidemie 2002.

Source: Dissertation, Vet. Med. Univ. Wien, pp. 86.

Advisor(s):

Rubel Franz


Project(s): MATHEPI - Development and Application of Mathematical Models in Veterinary Epidemiology


Abstract:
The objective of this thesis was to analyse the dynamic of the Phocine Distemper virus epidemic (PDV) in Northern Europe 2002. Therefore, the numbers of dead common seals (Phoca vitulina) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) collected at haul-out sites in Great Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden were analysed and visualized using a spreadsheet. A classic epidemic model, which divides individuals into compartments of susceptible, of infected and recovered animals, was applied. The dynamic of the PDV epidemic was calculated. Therefore the data of haul-out sites in Schleswig-Holstein were considered to be the best. The epidemiologic parameters of SIR-models are the recovery rate, the transmission rate and the death rate. Through adaptation of the different parameters to observations the basic reproduction number R0 (average number of infected animals due to one infected animal) could be determined. Estimated values of R0 were between 2,42 (B├╝sum) and 5,10 (Amrum). Within the model calculations there was the smallest RMS-error for Helgoland with 0,88% and for Amrum with a RMS-error of 1,05%. Furthermore, it has been demonstrated with a correlation of r=0,78 that the basic reproduction number increases with increasing population density. Finally, the possible reasons of the phocine distemper outbreaks and the long-term dynamic were discussed.

Keywords:
seal, morbillivirus, Phocine Distemper, epidemiology, epidemic model, SIR-model


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