Two different models to simulate the abundance of mosquito populations are described in this
thesis. These models are just one aspect of epidemic model to forecast the risk of West Nile
Virus infections, as developed in the scientifical community these days. The first West Nile
Virus outbreak in the United States in 1999 and the recurrent Outbreaks in Central Europe
mark the actuality of this topic.
The first model is a very simplified one and describes the growth of the mosquito
population with steady parameters (birth- and mortality rates), as suggested by American
colleagues. It just can be used in the tropics or for short periods of time. The second, extended
model is working with parameters, which are defined as functions of ecological parameters,
namely ambient air temperature and photoperiod; they are given externally and drive the
model. They are indispensable for reproduction of the saisonal cycle and the diapause of the
mosquitoes. Both population models calculate the abundance of Larvae and adult mosquitoes,
whereas all aquatic stages (Eggs, Larvae, Puppae) are summarized in the term Larvae.
For simulations over several years the extended model was used. The result contains
time series of the abundance of mosquitoes calculated for the locations Vienna, Los Angeles
(Bakersfield) and New York City (Central Park) for the period 2001-2005. A first visual
comparison of monitoring data of West Nile Virus-infected mosquitoes for the entire area of
New York State showed that the simulation of the mosquito-population with the extended
model produced results close to reality. In a final experiment alternative parameters were used
for birth- and mortality rates of the mosquitoes as suggested by the literature. Not all of them
are applicable in the mosquito model. Thus, as a further result of this thesis, a table for the
practicability of these different models is shown.