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Publication type: Diploma Thesis

Year: 2011

Author(s): Schober, Sophie

Title: Risikoabschätzung der Übertragung der Blauzungenkrankheit an der Veterinärmedizinischen Universität Wien.

Other title: Risk assesment of the Transmission of Bluetongue at the Veterinary Medicine University of Vienna

Source: Diplomarbeit, Vet. Med. Univ. Wien, pp. 51.


Advisor(s):

Rubel Franz

Reviewer(s):
Fuchs Klemens

Vetmed Research Units:
Institute of Food Safety, Food Technology and Veterinary Public Health, Unit of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology


Graduation date: 08.04.11


Abstract:
In this thesis different parameters influencing the development of Culicoides and an equation to calculate the risk of Bluetongue transmission so called basic reproduction number R0 are described. R0 describes the number of secondarily infected individuums through the invasion of one infected individuum. The first Bluetongue virus outbreak in the Neatherlands during August 2006 and the recurrent outbreaks in Central Europe mark the actuality of this topic. The term for the basic reproduction number R0 is simplified and describes the transmission efficiency midge to host, the transmission efficiency host to midge and the sheep recovery and death rate. The other parameters are defined as function of the temperature. The functions used in this equation are the temperature depending midge mortality rate and the rate of becoming infectious. They are indispensable for calculating the reproduction data during different environmental conditions. For simulations of the basic reproduction number over several years the temperature data from Sept. 1st 2008 till Sept. 30th 2010 for the location Veterinary Medicine University of Vienna were used. In the same way the data for the number of culicoides hatched during this period at the Veterinary Medicine University of Vienna were implemented. A first visual comparison of the different functions showed that the influence of the midge mortality rate and the rate of becoming infectious is not as big as expected. In a final experiment, the arithmetic average together with the 95-percent confidence interval was demonstrated. The results show that till the middle of September 2008, from the end of Juli till the end of August 2009 and from the beginning of June till the end of August 2010 an outbreak of bluetongue can be estimated.


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